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D5.2 SHIPLYS Risk assessment software module

D5.2 SHIPLYS Risk assessment software module

Executive summary

Background

SHIPLYS is a three-year project that started in September 2016. The project is in response to the needs of SME naval architects, shipbuilders and ship-owners, who, to survive in the world market, need to improve their capability to reduce the time and costs of design and production, to be able to reliably produce better ship concepts through rapid virtual prototyping and to meet the increasing requirements for LCCA (Life Cycle Cost Analysis), environmental assessments, risk assessments and end-of-life considerations as differentiators.

Introduction

SHIPLYS project is mainly focused on developing and integrating rapid virtual prototyping and lifecycle tools to empower European SME designers and production yards to make their own decisions on how to arrive at an early stage via a life-cycle approach, at both: optimum ship design configurations and optimal retrofitting/Conversion.

Existing established approaches and tools such as Building Information Modelling (BIM) and product lifecycle management (PLM) are investigated for the relevance of such functionality to meet SHIPLYS objectives.

Additionally, relevant work done in previous projects such as the Life Cycle Assessment Tool (LCAT) developed in the FP7 project MAINLINE, the approach developed within MOSAIC, another FP7 project, and many other projects that SHIPLYS participants have been involved are also reviewed.

Aims and Objectives

Development of the risk assessment module for the three SHIPLYS scenarios, where novel concepts are being proposed in modifications to the original design/retrofitting, and for a new ship design accounting for the constraints associated with SME shipyards.

Methodology

Work done in this Deliverable focus on the development of a risk assessment framework covering the SHIPLYS scenarios, including conceptual design, retrofitting, production processes, in-service hazards and structural failure, where time profiles of performance will be developed, incorporating structural degradation to predict the expected structural integrity.

Summary

This deliverable reports the development of the risk assessment module which is carried out from a through life perspective in Task 5.3 of SHIPLYS. The risk assessment is particularly critical for the developed SHIPLYS scenarios, where novel concepts are being proposed in modifications to the original design/retrofitting, and for a new ship design accounting for the constraints associated with SME shipyards.

For SHIPLYS, ‘risk’ is broadly defined as a combination of the probability or likelihood of a failure or an adverse event happening and its consequential cost or impact. Thus, the risk being considered in SHIPLYS covers structural failure where it is deemed as failure when the resistance offered by the structure is less than the load on the structure, or so close to it (reducing the stipulated margin of safety) as to be considered a failure. The SHIPLYS scenarios include in-service hazards such as accidental spills to capture risk during the operations stage.

For structural failure, Task 5.3 develops time profiles of performance, which incorporate structural degradation models in conjunction with ship hull strength to predict the expected behaviour regarding structural integrity. The profiles are envisaged to be approximate as they are based on the limited data available during the early design stage.

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